Tracking, analyzing every pick in the first round

The 2023 NFL draft is live from Kansas City, Missouri, the Chiefs the league’s first reigning Super Bowl champions to host the league’s marquee offseason event in their backyard since it hit the road.

The league’s  88th annual “Player Selection Meeting” kicks off with an unusually large amount of mystery and intrigue, but the answers finally come to light starting Thursday night in Round 1.

USA TODAY Sports will have the latest news, while analyzing each pick as it’s made.

(Note: The Miami Dolphins, who were scheduled to select 21st, forfeited their pick for illegally tampering with QB Tom Brady and coach Sean Payton when they were under contract with other clubs.)

2023 NFL draft tracker: First-round picks

As expected, they get their new point guard in Young, who has a basketball background and distributes the football in a similar manner. He becomes the new face of a franchise that’s been trying to fill (former point forward) Cam Newton’s shoes for years. Young, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, isn’t the perfect prospect, his 5-10, 204-pound frame providing valid reason for concerns about his durability. Yet his experience in a pro-style offense and quick cycle time through his progressions are among the traits that distinguish him, perhaps akin to a minus-sized Joe Burrow.

Young’s Heisman-winning performance included 4,872 yards and 47 TDs through the air. He’s accurate (66% completion rate in college) and his career 80-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio is indicative of solid decision-making. Young is also highly mobile, though typically buys time to pass and does a nice job keeping his eyes downfield, often running as a last resort – a la peak Russell Wilson. (And, it’s worth noting, Carolina GM Scott Fitterer was the Seahawks‘ director of college scouting when Wilson was drafted in 2012 and seems more than comfortable with Young’s stature.)

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As poised at the podium as he was while reading the field from the Bama pocket, a lot to like about Young. However for a team that’s traded RB Christian McCaffrey and WR DJ Moore within the past six month, not to mention the draft assets sent to the Bears in order to obtain the No. 1 pick for Young, it could take time to put impactful weaponry around him – particularly in the passing game.

2. Houston Texans – QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

This selection had become an intense source of speculation in recent weeks when rumors began to circulate that Houston would pivot from the expectation of selecting a quarterback for a defender. But they ultimately take the guy who will be expected to fill the gaping void created by Deshaun Watson‘s ugly departure.

Stroud’s throwing session at the scouting combine was as impressive as any in recent years, backing up his assertion beforehand that, “(I) throw guys open, and that’s something that I think is rare – because, at the league, dudes aren’t wide open.” That’s probably going to be especially true in Houston following the trade of Brandin Cooks, given Texans WRs Robert Woods, Nico Collins and John Metchie III aren’t exactly elite or swift relative to their position – and there’s a legitimate argument to be made that Stroud had better pass catchers in Columbus the past two years. A guy who feels like he should have won the last two Heismans is going to need every scintilla of his next-level passing ability in the pros given the Texans still have a lot of roster building ahead.

Stroud (6-3, 214 pounds) is accurate (69.3% completion rate in college), productive (85 TD passes, 12 INTs, 182.4 passer rating over last two seasons) and athletic – but has been inclined to extend plays to throw rather than break the pocket, though admits he should probably tuck the ball and dash a bit more. He was spectacular in his final game for the Buckeyes, a 2023 College Football Playoff semifinal loss to Georgia, passing for 348 yards and four TDs against a Bulldogs defense that is almost NFL-caliber. He could be the man to stabilize a franchise that has essentially been in free fall for more than three years.

3. Texans (from Arizona Cardinals) – OLB/DE Will Anderson Jr., Alabama

If taking Stroud was a surprise, the Texans moving back up to No. 3 is a stunner – and for the player who was purportedly their preference at No. 2 the past few weeks. Though this draft isn’t considered especially deep with blue chip talent and may not have many (or any) generational stars among its ranks, Anderson (6-4, 253) may be the best of the lot.

The two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year (and Crimson Tide’s first two-time unanimous All-American) was truly spectacular in 2021, when he led the country with 17½ sacks and 31 tackles for loss. He was only slightly less impressive last season (10 sacks, 17 TFLs), when he didn’t have as many opportunities to hunt quarterbacks. But his ability to do so will certainly be welcomed by new Houston HC DeMeco Ryans, a defensive wizard, and by a unit whose best pass rusher, Jerry Hughes, will be 35 this season.

And with Stroud and Anderson in the barn, the Texans may have their leaders on both sides of the ball for the next decade-plus.

Houston gave up the 12th pick, the 33rd pick, a 2024 first-rounder and 2024 third-rounder in the swap.

4. Indianapolis Colts – QB Anthony Richardson, Florida

The self-styled “Cam Jackson” blew up the combine as a bit of a Cam Newton-Lamar Jackson hybrid. At 6-4, 244 pounds, Richardson blazed a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and hit combine quarterback records with a vertical jump of 40½ inches and a broad jump of 10 feet, 9 inches. So though he’s lacking in experience (13 starts for the Gators), Richardson’s physical tools – to include a bazooka of an arm – make him a very early selection. He’s quite a departure from the pocket passers Indy has largely been reliant on in recent seasons, but the Colts’ options were instantly limited after the Panthers jumped them and Houston plucked Stroud. Yet new HC Shane Steichen might be the perfect man to shape Richardson given the success he had with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. And with veteran QB Gardner Minshew II now in the fold, the Colts have another guy who could teach Richardson the offense and even start indefinitely if the 21-year-old isn’t ready to play … even if that means the entire 2023 season. If he is on the field? Do you spy Richardson or key on 2021 rushing champ Jonathan Taylor? Indy’s getting dangerous.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos) – CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois

A tough-as-nails defensive back will be instantly welcomed into Pete Carroll’s highly competitive environment. Witherspoon, who didn’t allow a TD pass in 2022, isn’t afraid to stick his nose in the backfield when he’s not disrupting opposing passing attacks – the All-Big Ten performer breaking up 23 passes over the past two seasons. The 6-foot 181-pounder joins Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, giving Seattle a talented young corner trio … and perhaps the backbone of a new era “Legion of Boom.”

6. Cardinals (from Los Angeles Rams via Detroit Lions) – OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State

Arizona leapfrogs from No. 3, down to 12th, then back up to sixth for the Buckeyes star, who will be charged with protecting QB Kyler Murray (ACL surgery) once he’s ready to return this season. A 6-6, 313-pound consensus All-American, Johnson was widely rated as the draft’s top left tackle, though he’s also played extensively at guard and could start his professional life there pending the future of Cards LT D.J. Humphries. Fun fact: Johnson speaks Mandarin and Portuguese.

7. Las Vegas Raiders – DE/OLB Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech

The Silver and Black bolster a 28th-ranked defense, adding a young edge presence to team with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Wilson, a 6-6, 271-pounder with 14 sacks and 27½ TFLs over the past two seasons – even though his 2022 campaign was cut short by a broken foot – has size, speed and power and will be instantly tasked with negating the damage Vegas will face from AFC West QBs Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson. The Raiders’ 27 sacks in 2022 were the AFC’s fewest.

8. Atlanta Falcons – RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

Widely regarded as the best back since Saquon Barkley in 2018, he instantly becomes the linchpin of a 27th-ranked offense in 2022. And remember, HC Arthur Smith was highly reliant on RB Derrick Henry in his former post as offensive coordinator of the Titans. Robinson should also take a lot of pressure off second-year QB Desmond Ridder. A three-down back with speed – Robinson clocked a 4.46 40 at the combine while showing off velvety soft hands – had more than 3,300 yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons (while averaging 6.7 yards per touch).

9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Panthers via Bears) – DT Jalen Carter, Georgia

The NFC champs move up one spot for a controversial player but perhaps the best one in the entire draft. Carter said on HBO recently that teams haven’t probed him too deeply regarding his role in the fatal automobile crash that killed Bulldogs teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy in January. And any issues pertaining to his occasionally sputtering motor on the field are likely to be taken care of within a locker room of professionals. So clearly the Eagles are comfortable on the risk-reward matrix. The 6-3, 300-pounder’s sack numbers (3 last year) won’t wow you. But the All-American is cat-quick, lines up at all points along the front, can push the pocket and gets exceptional penetration and is especially effective at swallowing running backs. It doesn’t hurt he’ll be reuniting with former Dawgs teammate Jordan Davis, a first-round pick last year, and LB Nakobe Dean. And Carter would be wise to settle under the wing of veteran DT Fletcher Cox.

10. Bears (from New Orleans Saints via Eagles) – OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee

He can play left tackle or right, where he really shined in 2022 – including shutting down Anderson in the Vols’ upset of Alabama. Either way, the 6-5, 333-pound, All-SEC selection will now be expected to bolster the protection of Justin Fields for an offense that ranked 28th in 2022 despite the second-year quarterback’s singular heroics.

11. Tennessee Titans – OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

The unanimous All-American, who’s grandfather Bob played for Vince Lombardi’s Packers, can play tackle or guard and is made to order for an O-line in transition. But should be a welcome pick for Henry and Ryan Tannehill … or whoever is under center in Nashville this year.

12. Lions (from Cleveland Browns via Texans and Cardinals) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama

Often compared to Alvin Kamara, he brings an additional element to a crowded Detroit backfield that already includes D’Andre Swift and recently signed David Montgomery. Gibbs, a second-team All-SEC selecton in 2022, averaged nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 40 receptions over the past two seasons.

13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets) –

14. New England Patriots –

15. Jets (from Packers) –

16. Washington Commanders –

17. Pittsburgh Steelers –

18. Lions –

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –

20. Seahawks –

21. Los Angeles Chargers –

22. Baltimore Ravens –

23. Minnesota Vikings –

24. Jacksonville Jaguars –

25. New York Giants –

26. Dallas Cowboys –

27. Buffalo Bills –

28. Cincinnati Bengals –

29. Saints (from San Francisco 49ers via Dolphins and Broncos) –

30. Eagles –

31. Kansas City Chiefs –

After years of failed negotiations, Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson agreed to a five-year contract extension Thursday afternoon – meaning the Ravens can definitely spend their first-round pick (22nd) overall on another position. The team shared a tweet with Jackson sharing the news. – Nate Davis

After months of speculation, the 2023 NFL draft is finally about to take shape.

The mystery that has shrouded this year’s event will begin to dissipate on Thursday night, although the lingering uncertainty about several teams and prospects has left open a multitude of possibilities from the top of the order on down.

Now that the guessing game has nearly reached its endpoint, here’s USA TODAY Sports’ final NFL mock draft for 2023. – Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz 

The mystery of which quarterback the Carolina Panthers will select with the No. 1 overall pick remains unresolved. Uncertainty reigns further down the draft board as well, as this year’s class has left plenty of room for disagreement on the pecking order for top talent, even though several of the marquee names have established themselves in the premier tier. And comparisons become even more difficult when trying to weigh players at different positions.

With all that in mind, here’s USA TODAY Sports’ top 50 player rankings for the 2023 NFL draft. – Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz

NFL teams in the market for a quarterback create much bigger stirs than those focused on right tackles and slot corners. And this year in particular, there seems to be an ever-escalating layer of drama about where the presumed franchise passers will land – with the apparent exception of Alabama star Bryce Young, the presumptive No. 1 pick.

Of course, not every team will target a quarterback – though some might have a less apparent need for one. So let’s break the league into tiers in order to assess where this draft’s class of signal-callers will likely wind up … and where they probably won’t, starting with clubs least likely to take one. – Nate Davis 

It is a pretty good juncture to reflect on the NFL players who rate as history’s biggest deterrents to playing the draft lottery over the past half-century.

Some words about the methodology: This ranking and analysis are certainly interspersed with opinion. But we tried not to view these wayward picks in a vacuum – taking into account what teams sacrificed to take a player, either in terms of trade currency or whom they opted not to select, when evaluating each bust. Some deals themselves are included since many prevented teams from choosing superior options. Naturally, extra weight was given to quarterback gaffes.

Lastly, we tried to have some fun and creativity in select spots to keep you (and me) engaged, so try not to get too bent out of shape if that defensive tackle or tight end your team took in the top 10 before he petered out didn’t warrant a mention.

Read Nate Davis’s complete rankings here.

Chasing ghosts might feel like a futile task. For Daniel Jeremiah to be best prepared as NFL Network’s lead draft analyst, it’s essential.

Jeremiah said that with roughly two weeks before the draft, the level of studying a prospect is not as intense compared to the weeks before the combine in March. At this point, he’s doing his best last-minute work to be prepared for three days of broadcasting from Kansas City.

“You’re just pulling guys out of the pile,” Jeremiah told USA TODAY Sports. “I kind of joked that it’s like the scene from ‘Gladiator.’ This is not a full scouting report. It’s a thumbs up or thumbs down operation, whether or not these guys are draftable or not draftable types of players.

“You’re kind of drinking through a firehose.”

Todd McShay, ESPN’s senior NFL Draft analyst alongside Mel Kiper Jr., said that by April, most of the work is done. “At this point, to be quite honest, it’s a lot less stressful because ‘the hay is in the barn,’ as they say,” McShay wrote in an email to USA TODAY Sports.

Read Chris Bumbaca’s full feature here.

Even in jurisdictions where sports betting is regulated, the state may not offer wagers on the NFL draft. Of the states where sports betting is legal, NFL draft bets are not permitted in:

• Connecticut

• New York

• Virginia

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

It comes down to what the state’s sports gambling governing body considers a competition. The rules vary state-to-state, with deadlines and bet limits differing across certain borders. – Chris Bumbaca

After months of speculation, Aaron Rodgers is finally Big Apple-bound … or at least headed to the New York Jets’ rustic New Jersey base of operations. By finally reaching middle ground Monday, the Jets and Packers can now focus on their draft boards without the Rodgers specter lurking over Thursday and/or Friday nights. Still, this transaction, expected as it was, marks a seismic shift to the NFL landscape and seems to further shift the balance of power to the AFC. Here’s our breakdown of the winners and losers of the Rodgers deal. – Nate Davis

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL draft picks 2023: Live updates, tracker for entire first round

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