Brazil will win the World Cup after England are knocked out in the quarter-finals in Qatar, according to leading analysis of tournament chances.
Poor results since Gareth Southgate’s side’s Euro 2020 final appearance has seen England plunge from sixth to 13th in the report’s rankings, where they stand less of a chance of winning the World Cup than Uruguay.
Nielsen’s Gracenote, whose statistics forecast glory for the Lionesses triumph over the summer, says its latest modelling shows a sixth title for Brazil.
The predictor will be constantly updated as the tournament kicks off this Sunday, but, as it stands, the analysis spells doom for Wales in the group stages.
Iran, rather than Wales or the US, will qualify with England for the last-16, according to the analysis. England are most likely to win the group, and are then predicted to face a last-16 clash against Ecuador, ranked 18th. The statistics would then suggest a quarter-final exit for England, potentially against France.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Nielsen’s Gracenote, told Telegraph Sport: “England’s results in 2022 mean they have dropped from sixth place on our world ranking at the end of last year to 13th place now. This means that their chance of winning this year’s World Cup has reduced considerably and they are not amongst the favourites to win this year.”
Gracenote said it uses “extensive simulations, to assess the chances for each team to reach different stages of the tournament”. The forecasts will be updated daily during the tournament but, as it stands, Brazil has a 20 per cent chance of lifting the trophy after losing just three times in 50 matches since the 2018 World Cup. Argentina has a 16 per cent chance of becoming world champions for the first time since 1986.
Even though the teams would meet in the semi-finals if both win their respective groups, Gracenote simulations predict the teams will meet in the final.
The leading European contenders for the trophy this year are Spain and the Netherlands, both with a seven per cent chance of lifting the trophy. Belgium have a 6 per cent chance, France have a 5 per cent chance, while England are at 3 per cent.
Gracenote, which originally developed its proprietary football ranking in 2002, predicts the last 16 will be Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany, Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, Iran and Mexico.
Gleave added: “Based on their dominance of international football since the last World Cup, Gracenote projects Brazil and Argentina to continue to outperform competitors in the upcoming tournament. No other teams have been anywhere near as consistent over the last four years as the two South American giants and this consistency means that there is a good chance of one of them prevailing in front of a global audience of fans.”
In contrast with Gracenote’s calculations, England were rated last week as having the best hopes of winning the World Cup in a calculation based on collective insurable value of players.
Using the same Lloyd’s model that correctly identified Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018, England came top of a ranking of metrics which includes wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position.
England’s Jude Bellingham is rated the most insurable player at the Fifa World Cup, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé and Brazil’s Vinicius Junior.