Packers must win pressure battle vs. Bucs in NFC title game

Back in October, while previewing the upcoming showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we here at Packers Wire keyed in on quarterback pressure as a potentially decisive factor in the matchup.

The idea was simple: “The team who best pressures the opponent’s future Hall of Fame quarterback will likely win Sunday’s showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

The prediction turned out to be right. The Buccaneers protected Tom Brady throughout, while Todd Bowles defense swarmed Aaron Rodgers, pressuring him a season-high 18 times. The Bucs ran away with a blowout win, 38-10.

The same decisive factor could help determine who represents the NFC in Super Bowl LV.

Like Rodgers, Brady has been terrific from clean pockets in 2020. He completed nearly 72 percent of his passes, averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, tossed 36 touchdown passes and had a passer rating of 115.1.

In the first meeting, Brady was under pressure on just five of 27 dropbacks. He didn’t post big passing numbers against the Packers, but he was mostly efficient, especially from clean pockets.

Rodgers was uncharacteristically poor from a clean pocket against the Bucs, but he also completed just four passes on 13 attempts and averaged 3.7 yards per attempt while pressured. Bowles did a terrific job of disguising coverages, forcing Rodgers to hold the ball and unleashing blitzes at the right times.

Both quarterbacks looked drastically different when playing from a clean pocket or under pressure.

Here are the numbers, from Pro Football Focus:

The Packers must flip the script on the Buccaneers in the rematch. Rodgers was the best quarterback in football from a clean pocket in 2020, and by a significant margin. Can a reshuffled offensive line – one that dominated the Los Angeles Rams this past week – better protect Rodgers on Sunday? The defense has a simple task: make Brady uncomfortable. His passer rating dips by almost 61 points when under pressure this season. Neither team gave up much pressure this season, creating small sample sizes, but Brady really struggled when disrupted in the pocket.

Story continues

Against the Rams, the Packers didn’t allow a sack on offense while also pressuring Jared Goff on almost 50 percent of dropbacks on defense. Repeating that formula would be a great way to punch a ticket to Super Bowl LV.

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